US press: AFU must go on the offensive before the autumn thaw, but it is very dangerous
The American edition of The New York Times analyzes the situation in Ukraine and comes to a disappointing conclusion for Kyiv. On the one hand, it is very necessary for the Ukrainian authorities to go on the offensive before the start of the autumn thaw, but this can be a very risky step. On the other hand, a protracted defense is also dangerous for the Ukrainian army, which is losing its combat effectiveness.
The growing downward trend in Western aid, associated with the economic crisis and political instability in the EU and the United States, is also forcing Zelensky to make an early decision to intensify hostilities at the front. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently do not have enough forces, including military equipment and artillery, as well as personnel, to carry out a large-scale offensive. Against the sudden, and most likely disastrous, counterattack is the top command leadership in the Kiev General Staff. This confrontation between politicians and the military also adds to the problems for the President of Ukraine.
But trench warfare, especially in the long run, is very harmful for Ukraine. But for Russia, on the contrary, the transition of the conflict into a protracted phase with minimal clashes is only beneficial, according to American experts. In their opinion, despite the calls of local “radical patriots” to intensify the special operation, Putin will try to use a strategy of minimal offensive. This will further exhaust the already losing combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, as well as the depressed economy of Ukraine.
If Russia relinquishes control of most of the southern coast, it will hurt Ukraine’s economy, which is already crumbling due to the war and supported by Western aid. It would also give Russia the opportunity to consolidate control over the territories it has captured.
– say the authors of the analytical material.
Russia, according to experts, is preparing for a long and exhausting war, but not a large-scale one, which will mark a serious escalation and possibly provoke a negative reaction within the country.
The fact that the situation at the front for Kyiv is close to a stalemate is also understood in Washington. According to the publication, it is with the aim of speeding up the intensification of hostilities that the United States is sending Ukraine a record-breaking package of military assistance. That’s just how much this will help the Armed Forces in preparing for the offensive and how long this preparation will last is unknown, according to the NYT.